Monday, July 24, 2006
Israel in Grave Danger
I've been following the Israel story like crazy through both news organizations and policy organizations like Stratfor. There is no consistent story coming out of the Middle East right now, but there is consistent analysis of what Israel faces in the coming months.
Hezbollah set Israel up. By kidnapping soldiers and then launching rockets into Haifa, Hezbollah effectively gave Israel no choice but to go to war. To decline the war path would be political and diplomatic suicide for the new Israeli regime. However, Israel also ignored the diplomatic path entirely. In the past, Israel has been known to negotiate through third parties to resolve the issue of hostages without, you know, invading Lebanon.
That issue aside, Israel still has to respond to the missile attacks on her third-largest city. The nature of that response may play into Hezbollah's goals, however.
A brief jaunt back in history reveals Hezbollah's motivation and ability to act. The group is funded by Syria and Iran, but its operation in southern Lebanon gives it some independence to act autonomously. Regardless, Hezbollah is hell-bent on the destruction of Israel. Iran does not disagree. For a long time, however, Hezbollah has been unable to carry out attacks on Israel. Southern Lebanon was occupied by Israel from the 1980s until the year 2000, when Israel disengaged completely from Lebanon. This long occupation resembled a small-scale Iraq: insurgents would consistently be killing Israeli soldiers even though Israel had defeated the traditional Lebanese army. When Israel pulled out, they made a quiet deal with Syria. They would let Syria occupy Lebanon without interfering if Syria quieted Hezbollah. Both sides kept up their part of the bargain...
...until recently. The UN (and United States in particular) put a ton of diplomatic pressure on Syria. Ultimately, Syria was forced to pull out of Lebanon, leaving the weak Lebanese government in charge of quelling Hezbollah. Of course, Hezbollah was basically given free reign over southern Lebanon. With internal causes supporting the destruction of Israel and external forces looking both to destroy Israel and distract the G8 (Iran anyone?), Hezbollah carried out the series of attacks and drew Israel into a war.
Unfortunately, this war is starting to look like Iraq. A massive intelligence blunder led Israel to believe that its army had destroyed up to 50% of Hezbollah's arsenal, a report that the citizens of Haifa will be quick to deny. Hezbollah is much better prepared for this war than was originally suspected, and Israel has been caught off-guard by how well Hezbollah is standing up against Israeli attacks.
We then go back to Hezbollah's goals in all of this: if they can engage Israel in an un-winnable guerilla war (like Iraq), they will gain enormous respect and clout among the Middle Eastern nations. By inflicting casualties on Israel, they work towards their goal of Israel's destruction.
The conventional war that's currently being fought will be easily won by Israel. If Hezbollah changes its strategy (a widely expected move), Israel may no longer be in a "conventional warfare" scenario. It is now up to Israel to figure out how to deal with an extremely sticky situation. Israel should already have learned its lesson and prepared differently for this war (if not from its previous occupation of the exact same territory, then from its number one ally fighting the same war in the same region). Since she did not, it is up to the military strategists and intelligence officials (some of the best in the world) to not fall victim to Hezbollah's games.
Either way, it seems both Hezbollah and Israel are screwed. Hezbollah will face heavy casualties, a huge loss of supplies, and will be forced into fighting unfairly very quickly. Israel will lose soldiers, citizens, and bargaining power if it gets sucked into an Iraq crisis.
Syria and Iran come out on top. Syria has a lot to gain from the fall of the weak Lebanese government; Iran not only completely distracted the G8 from dealing with the nuclear issue, but also benefits from a long-fought Hezbollah hold-out.
I guess it's clear who is behind this war in the first place. I hope and pray Israel continues to win the wars she has chosen to fight.
Hezbollah set Israel up. By kidnapping soldiers and then launching rockets into Haifa, Hezbollah effectively gave Israel no choice but to go to war. To decline the war path would be political and diplomatic suicide for the new Israeli regime. However, Israel also ignored the diplomatic path entirely. In the past, Israel has been known to negotiate through third parties to resolve the issue of hostages without, you know, invading Lebanon.
That issue aside, Israel still has to respond to the missile attacks on her third-largest city. The nature of that response may play into Hezbollah's goals, however.
A brief jaunt back in history reveals Hezbollah's motivation and ability to act. The group is funded by Syria and Iran, but its operation in southern Lebanon gives it some independence to act autonomously. Regardless, Hezbollah is hell-bent on the destruction of Israel. Iran does not disagree. For a long time, however, Hezbollah has been unable to carry out attacks on Israel. Southern Lebanon was occupied by Israel from the 1980s until the year 2000, when Israel disengaged completely from Lebanon. This long occupation resembled a small-scale Iraq: insurgents would consistently be killing Israeli soldiers even though Israel had defeated the traditional Lebanese army. When Israel pulled out, they made a quiet deal with Syria. They would let Syria occupy Lebanon without interfering if Syria quieted Hezbollah. Both sides kept up their part of the bargain...
...until recently. The UN (and United States in particular) put a ton of diplomatic pressure on Syria. Ultimately, Syria was forced to pull out of Lebanon, leaving the weak Lebanese government in charge of quelling Hezbollah. Of course, Hezbollah was basically given free reign over southern Lebanon. With internal causes supporting the destruction of Israel and external forces looking both to destroy Israel and distract the G8 (Iran anyone?), Hezbollah carried out the series of attacks and drew Israel into a war.
Unfortunately, this war is starting to look like Iraq. A massive intelligence blunder led Israel to believe that its army had destroyed up to 50% of Hezbollah's arsenal, a report that the citizens of Haifa will be quick to deny. Hezbollah is much better prepared for this war than was originally suspected, and Israel has been caught off-guard by how well Hezbollah is standing up against Israeli attacks.
We then go back to Hezbollah's goals in all of this: if they can engage Israel in an un-winnable guerilla war (like Iraq), they will gain enormous respect and clout among the Middle Eastern nations. By inflicting casualties on Israel, they work towards their goal of Israel's destruction.
The conventional war that's currently being fought will be easily won by Israel. If Hezbollah changes its strategy (a widely expected move), Israel may no longer be in a "conventional warfare" scenario. It is now up to Israel to figure out how to deal with an extremely sticky situation. Israel should already have learned its lesson and prepared differently for this war (if not from its previous occupation of the exact same territory, then from its number one ally fighting the same war in the same region). Since she did not, it is up to the military strategists and intelligence officials (some of the best in the world) to not fall victim to Hezbollah's games.
Either way, it seems both Hezbollah and Israel are screwed. Hezbollah will face heavy casualties, a huge loss of supplies, and will be forced into fighting unfairly very quickly. Israel will lose soldiers, citizens, and bargaining power if it gets sucked into an Iraq crisis.
Syria and Iran come out on top. Syria has a lot to gain from the fall of the weak Lebanese government; Iran not only completely distracted the G8 from dealing with the nuclear issue, but also benefits from a long-fought Hezbollah hold-out.
I guess it's clear who is behind this war in the first place. I hope and pray Israel continues to win the wars she has chosen to fight.
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